What Is War In Baseball? (The Ultimate Guide)

Sabermetrics is changing the way baseball players are being assessed. Several debates are going on among fans and evaluators on who the best player is. But is there a way to quickly find that out? Well, the truth is evaluators have begun using WAR to compare players and identify the best one. What is WAR?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) assesses the value of a player in comparison to a position player to determine if the former is worth any wins on the go. This statistic is meant to find if a player is any better than a typical average player based on performance. 

While WAR is already in use, does it add value to determining the best player? Is it more effective than other statistics? This article answers various aspects of WAR in baseball. 

Role of War In Baseball

The purpose of WAR is to project a player’s worth against a replacement-level player considering all facets of baseball. It came into existence in the 21st century. 

Sabermetrics has insisted on the vast application of WAR to evaluate a player considering their stats on baseball cards. In some cases, wins above replacement player (WARP) are used to denote WAR, but both terms are synonymous. 

WAR combines various statistics to produce a number to present the ability of a player to win in the game. While it creates a single digit as its outcome, it is pretty tricky. Every player follows a specific style of play and has various responsibilities in every position. 

For example, WAR helps in determining the worth of a minor league player compared to a Major League Baseball (MLB) player. The challenge with WAR is that a player who is good at offense/defense but scores low on bases would have low chances of success. As a result, the WAR score is low and puts the player at stake. 

The statistic works differently for position players and pitchers as statistics are unique. Let us understand how the WAR is calculated in the upcoming section. 

How To Calculate War In Baseball

Position Players 

WAR for position players sums up the number of runs above average that a baseball player is worth in his position, runs of a replacement-level player, adjustment according to the league, and adjustment based on position. The summed value is then divided by runs per win to determine the final value. 

Here is the formula:

Position player WAR Metric = (Fielding runs above average + Batting runs + Base running runs + Adjustment for position + Adjustment for league + Runs offered by a player at the replacement level) / Runs per win

The above is the formula presented by Fan Graphs (fWAR). Baseball-Reference offers another way to evaluate this metric (bWAR). 

WAR = (Player runs – Average player runs) + (Average runs – Replacement level runs)

This WAR metric for position players considers fielding, running, hitting, and pitching to assess a player’s value. The advantage of this metric is that it compares the value with a player in the same position. As a result, the application is well-justified and does not include any bias. 

According to Baseball-Reference, calculating WAR does not limit to one way. It needs to be reasonable in its outcome. Otherwise, it can provoke disagreements and lose its application in baseball. 

Pitchers

The WAR value for pitchers includes two components – the number of innings pitched and runs allowed by a player. These components enable the assessment of a pitcher’s value considering team defense and other teams playing in the league.

Pitcher WAR metric (FIP) = (Homeruns + BB + HBP + K + IFFB) / Innings Pitched (IP)

Fan Graphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (bWAR) follow different methods and variables to calculate this metric for pitchers. 

WAR (FanGraphs) = [{(((League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Runs per win for pitcher) + Replacement level) * (IP/9)} * Relievers leverage multiplier] + Correction for league 

WAR (Baseball-Reference) = Replacement level + Wins above average + (Wins above average * (1.00 + Leverage multiplier)/2)

These differences in formulae indicate unique perspectives of evaluators. 

FanGraphs prioritizes fielding independent pitching (FIP) to list various contributions achieved by the pitcher. 

If the pitcher is a reliever or a starter, another metric called leverage index is used to determine the value based on the situation. Starters tend to score better ERAs compared to relievers. The leverage index customizes the calculation based on the game’s status and impact of an outcome. 

The goal is to understand the value according to the pitcher’s performance compared to a replacement-level pitcher. Various computations are meant to adjust the result for the ballpark.

What Is A Good War In Baseball

FanGraphs reports a range of 3-4 WAR to term a player good. WAR values of 0-1 mean scrub, 1-2 represent role player, 2-3 means solid starter, and 4-5 means all-star. Any value above five is considered excellent. 

If you are new to baseball, you should assign the league average to zero to find if the player is any better than the replacement-level player. 

When a player has a WAR value below 0, it urges the need to replace him as he does not add any value to the league and lowers the chances of the win. However, if the WAR values are between 0 and 2, the team should have a backup or a replacement if the actual player meets a failure. 

When the WAR value is 2.1 to 4.9, the player can take charge as a game starter and does not need a replacement. However, an all-star player has a WAR value of 5-7.9. This value is rare, but such players do not require replacements as they perform better than replacement-level players. 

Here is an image to understand the hierarchy of players according to WAR ratings:

Relief pitchers in baseball have WAR values between 1 and 2.

Is A Higher War Better In Baseball

A high WAR value is excellent in baseball as it indicates the capability and performance of the pitcher. A high value also lowers the chance for a player to get replaced. 

While WAR is not a complete reflection of the player’s capability, it does help in assessing the consistency of performance. It also enables the team leader to determine if a replacement is needed. 

Position players and pitchers have different values of WAR. Players in the defense position score more value. Their WAR scores can significantly improve as players continue playing for several games. The scores also change with increases in playing time. 

Which WAR Works Best For Pitchers?

f-WAR is preferred for pitchers over b-WAR as the former helps forecast future WAR scores of a pitcher. The only downside is that f-WAR can sometimes vary based on luck. 

When choosing the WAR score, it is impossible to determine how a pitcher played in the previous year because the advanced pitching metric is meant to forecast the future. f-WAR presents better explanatory abilities enabling teams to determine if the pitcher can add value to upcoming performances in the group. 

Let us look at a few examples to understand how these values can vary and influence the role of a pitcher. 

Norris has a bWAR score of 0.0 and an fWAR score of 1.0. Suppose one has to take these scores to find out if Norris needs to be replaced, fWAR states that Norris is ahead by one win, thereby limiting replacement. This gives him an advantage, provided team leaders and evaluators consider fWAR over bWAR to determine his stand against Norris.

MLB War Leaders By Year

Manny Machado tops the list of MLB war leaders in 2022, while Shohei Ohtani tops it for the year 2021. 

Here is the list of top MLB War leaders for the last decade. 

Year	Name	Position	WAR
2022	Manny Machado	3B	4.3
2021	Shohei Ohtani	DH	8.1
2020	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SS	3.3
2019	Mike Trout	CF	8.3
2018	Mookie Betts	RF	10.6
2017	Aaron Judge	RF	8.8
2016	Mike Trout	CF	8.5
2015	Bryce Harper	RF	9.3
2014	Clayton Kershaw	P	8.4
2013	Mike Trout	CF/LF	10.2

Mike Trout has topped the list thrice. However, the WAR score decreased as the playing time increased. Since the score is above 8.0, it falls under the excellent WAR score category, requiring no replacement for his position. 

The highest WAR score is 10.6, which Mookie Betts scored in 2018. The lowest WAR score is 3.3, scored by Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2020. All these values are based on stats generated as per FanGraphs. 

Single-Season Leaders

Tim Keefe tops the list of single-season leaders with a 20.2 WAR score, and Old Hoss Radbourn and Pud Galvin follow him. 

Here is the list of single-season leaders from the 1880s. 

Player name	WAR
Tim Keefe	20.2
Old Hoss Radbourn	19.4
Pud Galvin	18.4
Jim Devlin	18.3
Guy Hecker	17.8

The first three players have been to the hall of fame due to their outstanding WAR scores. 

Why Is War Important In Baseball

WAR is an inexpensive metric providing insight on players’ performances per historical peers to plan team alignment and success. It also quantifies the value of a player based on wins. 

Wins above replacement (WAR) is a simple method to measure the capacity of a baseball player and forecast the wins for a team. It does not mislead evaluators and considers several variables that influence the performance of a position player or pitcher. 

Let us take the example of Mike Trout. He is a great fielder with an extremely high batting average and OPS value. Likewise, Clayton Kershaw scored a WAR score of 7.2 in 2014. The WAR score implies that the respective team has won the other seven games, which is over the expected value for an average player. This undoubtedly increases the success rate of the player and the respective team. 

WAR is essential in baseball for several reasons:

• It is ideal for comparing players in defensive positions. 
• It deciphers factors contributing towards more player and team wins compared to another player. 
• It presents the valuation of a player. 

Let us assume that the average WAR value in the free-agent market is around 4 million USD. When the team has a league-average player recording 3 WAR, it is more likely to receive a contract accounting for 12 million USD per annum. In other words, the respective player is expected to get a contract of a better sum. This improves the competitiveness of the player and the associated team. 

• WAR has high statistical validity as it fits batters and pitchers. 

WAR assigns valid weights to every offensive category for batters and considers ballpark for the respective position. To acknowledge great defenders in the team, WAR considers and assesses defensive performances. 

On the other hand, WAR simplifies comparisons among pitchers and adjusts the ballpark. Further, it applies defense-independent pitching metrics that eliminate double runs or false values associated with a pitcher. 

There are criticisms questioning the perfection of WAR as a stat for the following reasons. 

• There are individual positional adjustments to calculate WAR. Hence, adding variables to derive the total WAR score is difficult. 
• WAR does not provide a confidence interval.
• bWAR analyzes the scenario while fWAR is concerned about the pitching performance. These two different methods of calculation can confuse evaluators. 
• WAR undervalues catchers, and this bias is an area of concern affecting its application. 

Despite differences in perceptions about WAR, it is still a great stat that helps structure the team and plan players based on their performances, skills, and needs. 

Like every other stat, WAR is one stat that every team evaluator should consider to plan players on their positions and arrange replacements to maximize chances of success.

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